Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Friday, 14 December 2012

The Express and its 'unmatched, accurate weather updates'

In today's Express, the paper pats itself on the back for its weather coverage. The paper says it has:

a firm reputation for leading the way when it comes to the weather.

That:

we are unmatched on our faithful and accurate weather updates.

And that they are:

oracles of the British weather.

This article was written by Nathan Rao. Many of the Express' weather articles, which often predict apocalyptic spells of cold or heat (usually, one appears days after the other), are also written by Nathan Rao.

For example, on 5 September he wrote about a:

tropical burst of summer could last late into October

It didn't last until late October - it didn't even last five days, as on 10 September Rao was reporting 80mph gales that would 'end [the] heatwave.'

On 7 July, the paper (not Rao this time) claimed: Sorry, there's no might about it...IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER. Just two weeks later, Rao claimed that Britain would see 'temperatures soaring to 95F next week.'

On 15 June, Rao's story claiming that forecasters did 'not anticipate any significant hot spell until well into September' was splashed on the front page. Ten days later, Rao's story claiming that a 'scorching blast of summer will at last roar in from the Continent this week – sending temperatures to 93F (34C)' was splashed on the front page.

On 22 May, the Express said it would be the 'hottest summer for almost a decade'. On 9 June, this changed to 'worst storms for a decade' and a 'year without summer'.

On 19 April, Rao reported claims that it would be the 'coldest May for 100 years'. In fact, the Met Office revealed at the end of May:

temperature, rainfall and even sunshine are very close to normal....

And that there was:

a run of dry and fine weather, with some remarkably high temperatures. This included a new maximum May temperature for Scotland...

In all, it has been the longest warm spell in May since 1992.

A year ago, on 17 December 2011, the Express' front page headline screamed: 'It's a white Christmas!'. But just four days later, bookies were 'slashing the odds on this Christmas being the warmest on record' and two days after that, the paper admitted: 'It won't be a white Christmas anywhere in the UK'.

In early October 2011, Rao reported that temperatures were to hit -20C 'within weeks'. A month later, he reported a 'big Siberian freeze' will arrive 'with a vengeance...within the next fortnight'. Twelve days later, Rao was reporting that Britain was: 'on track for the warmest November since records began 353 years ago.'

There are many more examples like these. After all, Scott Bryan revealed on 23 August 2012 that since September 2011, the Express had weather stories on the front page 111 times - 52 of them as the main story.

So while the Express may indeed 'lead the way' in the amount of column-inches it devotes to the weather, to claim it is of 'unmatched accuracy' or that they are 'oracles of the British weather' is simply laughable.

* Nathan Rao has his own blog. It reveals he's been a journalist for nine years and includes a section called 'Some of my front pages'. It includes just six examples, all from the Express, one of which is the disgraceful, completely untrue 'Muslim Plot to Kill Pope' article which labelled six innocent men as Islamic terrorists with links to Al-Qaeda.

Monday, 25 June 2012

Express changes its weather forecast....again

This blog has tried to keep track of the very changeable weather forecasts that have appeared on the front of the Express over the past few months.

Now things have changed again. 

Just ten days ago, we were told 'Summer starts in September':



Nathan Rao explained:

Forecasters fear the equivalent of five months of rain could fall by the end of June. They do not anticipate any significant hot spell until well into September.

No significant hot spell until September?

Then today:


And now, Mr Rao?

A scorching blast of summer will at last roar in from the Continent this week – sending temperatures to 93F (34C).

Sun-starved Britons will sizzle in four days of “extreme heat” – at least in the South – due to a surge of hot air from Spain and France.

The mercury is expected to rocket to 81F tomorrow with highs of 93F possible in London and the South-east by Thursday.

34C?

The Met Office is currently forecasting nothing higher than 25C this week in London:

Saturday, 9 June 2012

The coldest May for 100 years?

On 19 April, the Express' front page splash was yet another weather prediction:


The article by Nathan Rao explained:

Britain is facing the coldest May for a century with winter poised to return, bringing snow and bitter winds.

Parts of the UK are braced for the thermometer to plunge as the cool spring turns even chillier. Worst hit will be the East – although summer will be on hold across the entire country.

The story was based on a forecast from WeatherAction's Piers Corbyn:

He said: "We are making this headline public because of its importance...we last got a very cold May in 1996, but we could have to go back to 1891 to see similar. It is certainly going to be a very cold month in the East, although the West will be milder during the day."

A Met Office analysis of the weather from 1-28 May, published on the 30th, actually revealed:

temperature, rainfall and even sunshine are very close to normal....Mean temperature for 1 to 28 May is 10.1 °C, just 0.1 °C above the long-term average. Sunshine is at 104% of the average with 192 hours, so a little above what we would expect, and rainfall is just below at 90% of the average, or 59.8mm.

There was:

a run of dry and fine weather, with some remarkably high temperatures. This included a new maximum May temperature for Scotland...

In all, it has been the longest warm spell in May since 1992.

Changeable weather conditions at the Express

Daily Express, 19 May 2012:


Britain's miserable spring will end in a glorious summer, forecasters said last night.

Sun lovers can start looking forward to temperatures in the 80s by the end of June.

Daily Express, 22 May 2012: 100F SUMMER ON WAY


Daily Express, 22 May 2012:

RED-HOT SUMMER TO BREAK RECORDS

Britain is on course for the hottest summer for almost a decade, forecasters said last night.

Daily Express, 9 June 2012:


Britain faces another fortnight of torrential rain which could trigger the worst floods for almost a decade, forecasters warned last night.

A “devastating deluge” threatens to bring two months’ worth of rain before the end of what will be a washout June.

Daily Express editorial, 9 June 2012:

The weather is spectacularly terrible.

It looks as though 2012 might well turn out to be a year without a summer.

Wednesday, 25 April 2012

The Express and 'scaremongering' over a double-dip recession

Daily Express, 27 February 2012:

The way the economy is bouncing back is great news for Britain...

As the eurozone slides towards a predicted 0.3 per cent recession Britain is on course to grow by 0.8 per cent. The remarkable performance of Great Britain plc is built on a solid foundation: we’re making more, building more and selling more...

Britain still has a long way to go but it is obvious now that those who talk of us sliding into a double dip recession are simply scaremongering.

Express website, 25 April 2012:


(Original quote spotted by George Eaton)

Wednesday, 7 March 2012

'Nul points' for another Eurovision story

After tweeting a link to the post about three different stories linking Russell Grant to the Eurovision Song Contest, the Daily Star Sunday's Ed Gleave replied:


It was on 26 February 2012 that Gleave suggested that Atomic Kitten were 'lined up' to represent the UK. It was backed up by - yes - another anonymous source:

A Eurovision insider said last night: “Atomic Kitten are the perfect act to send to Baku. They were picked because the BBC think they’ve got what it takes.”

The members of Atomic Kitten were surprised by this revelation. Natasha Hamilton tweeted:

I thought my memo got lost in the post!

Liz McClarnon tweeted:

Loving the rumours & thank you for all the well wishes but we know nothing about #eurovision

And Jenny Frost tweeted:

Woke up to hear that apparently AK are doing Eurovision-first I've heard!!

So eventhough all of them said they knew nothing about it, Gleave's anonymous source said 'they were picked' for the contest.

Engelbert Humperdinck was announced as the actual act a few days later

(Hat-tip to Ed Gleave)

Tuesday, 6 March 2012

Russell Grant and Eurovision

It was announced last week that Engelbert Humperdinck is to represent the UK at the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest.

This may have come as something of a shock to readers of the Daily Star. On 17 November 2011, the paper said the person being 'lined up' to sing for the UK was...Russell Grant:


Peter Dyke's article includes a quote from a conveniently anonymous source, who says:

“He’s camp just like Eurovision. But he can also sing and dance, unlike some of our past entries.

“We’re looking for someone who will bring the fun back to the contest so it would make sense to ask him."

The only attributed quote in the article comes at the end and is from Grant. He points out such reports are:

"very premature"

Indeed.

One week later, the Evening Standard had a different role lined up for Grant:

Russell Grant is set to host of the Eurovision Song Contest.

The 'Strictly Come Dancing' star - who left the ballroom competition last weekend - is the frontrunner to present the BBC's coverage of the annual singing competition next year, taking over duties from Graham Norton.

A source said: "Russell would be perfect for Eurovision. He's well and truly in the nation's hearts after his amazing routines on Strictly and would bring his unique humour and zest to the show. 

Another anonymous source.

It's not clear where the suggestion Norton was being replaced came from. But the BBC's press release announcing Humperdinck as the UK act ended with confirmation that commentary for the 2012 event will indeed be done by...Norton.

But that wasn't the end of Grant and Eurovision. On 28 December 2011, the Sun came up with a different tale:

Astrologer Russell Grant has been asked to represent MALTA at Eurovision.

Organisers from the Mediterranean island got in touch with the flamboyant star after he impressed them with his turn on Strictly Come Dancing. 


Malta? Oh yes, according to another anonymous source:

A pal said: "He was thrilled but a bit perplexed to be asked to represent Malta as he has no link to the country.

"The only Maltesers he knows are in a box of chocolates. But he was really flattered."

Yet there's an interesting comment under this article, from one of the 'organisers' in Malta that, the Sun said, had 'got in touch' with Grant:


'Absolutely garbage and completely untrue'.

An article on Malta Today elaborates on this denial:


Eurovision Malta chief organiser and PBS chief executive Anton Attard described the report as "absolute nonsense".

Attard explained that he didn't even know Russell Grant, however he did not exclude that the British media got it all wrong.

"Mr. Grant may have been contacted by any composer who would have offered him a song, and we do not go into that as long as the competition regulations are observed," Attard said.

He added that from the long list of entry submissions made to the organisers, Russell Grant's name never featured. The time for submissions has meanwhile been closed.

And last month it was announced that Malta would be represented by Kurt Calleja.

So three articles about Russell Grant and Eurovision, and not one of them turned out to be true. The papers clearly need more reliable anonymous sources.